A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
